Chapter 20 The Burden

Human Development Index

The scale and profile of cancer continue to evolve as countries undergo major transitions in human development.

The Human Development Index (HDI) is a summary measure of average achievement in countries based on national levels of educational attainment, life expectancy, and income. Map 20.1 displays the four tiers of HDI for the year of 2021. By examining cancer through the lens of human development, we can assess cancer transitions and cancer inequalities that are of direct relevance to setting cancer-control priorities.

Figure 20.1 shows the most frequent forms of cancer incidence and mortality by the four-tier HDI and for the vast populations of China and India. Cancer is complex, with 13 different cancer types ranking among the top five across the four broad regions (excluding China and India), as well as in China and India individually. The profiles can be viewed as a snapshot of the impact of changes in lifestyle and the built environment linked to social and economic development, but also the extent to which early diagnosis and curative treatment programs are available and accessible in different settings.

Figure 20.1

The top five cancers in terms of incidence and mortality (excluding non-melanoma skin cancer) by four-tier Human Development Index (HDI), China and India, 2022

Breast
Lung
Cervix uteri
Colorectum
Prostate
Liver
Stomach
Bladder
Pancreas
Lip, oral cavity
Esophagus
Thyroid
Other specified cancers

Despite lung cancer being the most frequent cancer type globally and in China, female breast cancer is the most common form of incidence at each level of HDI and in India. Colorectal cancer is among the top five leading cancers for both incidence and mortality across HDI levels and in China. There is still a persistence of infection-associated cancers in populations, particularly in low and medium HDI countries. Liver cancer ranks among the leading form of cancer mortality irrespective of HDI rank, cervical cancer ranks in the top five cancers for both incidence and mortality in low and medium HDI regions, as well as India, and stomach cancer is an important cause of cancer death in high HDI countries and China.

“You cannot achieve environmental security and human development without addressing the basic issues of health and nutrition.”

—Gro Harlem Brundtland Former Prime Minister, Norway

The rising cancer burden will hit low and medium HDI countries the hardest. Figure 20.2 demonstrates the upsurge in new cancer cases by 2050 will be proportionally greatest in lower HDI settings. There is a need for concerted and coordinated efforts by local governments, donors, and civic societies to implement tailored and cost-effective interventions in these countries.

The number of people newly diagnosed with cancer in a year in the next 30 years will be more than double in countries with low or medium Human Development Index rankings.

Figure 20.2

​Estimated number of new cancer cases (excluding non-melanoma skin cancer) from 2022 to 2050 by four-tier Human Development Index (HDI), China, and India​

Sources

Text

  • United Nations Development Programme. Human Development Report 2021–22. Uncertain Times, Unsettled Lives: Shaping our Future in a Transforming World. United Nations; 2022. https://hdr.undp.org/content/human-development-report-2021-22. Accessed Novermber 25, 2024.
  • Bray F, Jemal A, Grey N, Ferlay J, Forman D. Global cancer transitions according to the Human Development Index (2008-2030): a population-based study. Lancet Oncol. Aug 2012;13(8):790-801. doi:10.1016/s1470-2045(12)70211-5
  • Ferlay J, Ervik M, Lam F, Laversanne M, Colombet M, Mery L, Piñeros M, Znaor A, Soerjomataram I, Bray F (2024). Global Cancer Observatory: Cancer Today (version 1.1). Lyon, France: International Agency for Research on Cancer. https://gco.iarc.who.int/today.
  • Bray F, Laversanne M, Sung H, et al. Global cancer statistics 2022: GLOBOCAN estimates of incidence and mortality worldwide for 36 cancers in 185 countries. CA Cancer J Clin. May-Jun 2024;74(3):229-263. doi:10.3322/caac.21834
  • Gersten O, Wilmoth JR. The Cancer Transition in Japan since 1951. Demographic Research. 2002;7:271-306.

Maps


Figures

  • Figure 20.1: Ferlay J, Ervik M, Lam F, Laversanne M, Colombet M, Mery L, Piñeros M, Znaor A, Soerjomataram I, Bray F (2024). Global Cancer Observatory: Cancer Today (version 1.1). Lyon, France: International Agency for Research on Cancer. https://gco.iarc.who.int/today.
  • Figure 20.2:Ferlay J, Laversanne M, Ervik M, Lam F, Colombet M, Mery L, Piñeros M, Znaor A, Soerjomataram I, Bray F (2024). Global Cancer Observatory: Cancer Tomorrow (version 1.1). Lyon, France: International Agency for Research on Cancer. https://gco.iarc.who.int/tomorrow.